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Government

Jan. 17, 2025

The second-term curse: Will Donald Trump defy history?

The so-called "second-term curse" has plagued many U.S. presidents, and for Donald Trump, breaking from past patterns of self-sabotage, poor appointments, and egotistical decision-making will be crucial to avoiding a rocky return to office.

Michael A. Genovese

Michael A. Genovese holds the Loyola Chair of Leadership Studies, and is Professor of Political Science, Director of the Institute for Leadership Studies, and President of the Global Policy Institute at Loyola Marymount University, where he teaches political science and international relations.

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Historically, the second terms of American presidents have been rocky, even disastrous. Frequently referred to as "the second-term curse," this phenomenon has transcended party lines, and ideology. The second-term curse has led to scandals, impeachments, and policy failures, among other challenges. Few presidents have escaped it unscathed.

Here are but a few historical examples. In his second term, James Madison watched the British burn ...

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