Apr. 9, 2026
Predicting the future of futures prediction markets
Futures prediction markets raise questions about legality, insider trading, and unpaid bets, with the Supreme Court poised to decide the limits of federal preemption and states' rights.
Futures prediction markets have recently gotten a lot of attention. Not all of it good.
Insiders who knew top-secret military plans opened accounts on Polymarket and placed $529 million in winning trades, betting on the exact day air-strikes would begin.
A bigger problem has so far gotten little attention. Kalshi, the other big operator, has refused to pay $54 million to traders who won their bets on when Iranian leader Ayatollah ...
For only $95 a month (the price of 2 article purchases)
Receive unlimited article access and full access to our archives,
Daily Appellate Report, award winning columns, and our
Verdicts and Settlements.
Or
$895, but save $100 when you subscribe today… Just $795 for the first year!
Or access this article for $45
(Purchase provides 7-day access to this article. Printing, posting or downloading is not allowed.)
Already a subscriber?
Sign In