Understanding the US Electoral College: Who, what, why, when, and how we elect our presidents

Introduction

The Electoral College is a unique and often misunderstood component of the U.S. presidential election process. Established by the U.S. Constitution, signed into law by the members of the Continental Congress on Sept. 17, 1787, and fully ratified by the requisite number of state houses-- nine of 13-- on June 21, 1788, when New Hampshire signed off, it plays a crucial role in determining the president and vice president of the United States.

In the wake of the spirited "Great Debate" between Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Trump on Sept. 10, 2024, a debate that I believe was much more aptly fact-checked in real time by the ABC moderators than the debate between President Biden and former President Trump on June 27, 2024. And as the "Great Debate" has now been confirmed to be the only debate between the two candidates, this essay aims to elucidate the inner workings of the Electoral College, its advantages and disadvantages, while underscoring the importance of voting in the upcoming Nov. 5, 2024 election.

What is the Electoral College?

The Electoral College is not an abstract, metaphysical place, but a process defined by the U.S. Constitution, specifically, Article II, Section 1, and the 12th Amendment (effective 1804)outline its structure and function. The Electoral College is the mechanism through which the U.S. president and vice president are elected, rather than by direct popular vote.

How does the Electoral College work?

Each state is allocated a number of electors that is equal to its total number of senators and representatives in Congress. The District of Columbia is also allocated three electors. The active political parties in each state typically select a slate of electors before the general election. These electors are often party loyalists or individuals with a strong affiliation to a given party.

Currently, the total number of U.S. electors is 538, distributed across the states based on the most recent complete U.S. census. Since 50% of 538, plus one, is 270, that is the number of electors needed by a presidential candidate to win the election. For example, in the 2020 presidential election (held using 2010 census data), Joe Biden received 306 electors and Donald Trump received 232 electors of the total 538 electoral votes. Again, it is the political parties in each state that select these electors, who pledge to vote for their party's candidate. On Election Day, we the people cast our ballots for these pledged electors rather than directly for the presidential candidates. Most states employ a winner-takes-all system, where the candidate with the majority of votes in that state wins all its electoral votes. Only Maine and Nebraska use a proportional system. The states with the most electors in the 2020 election were:

·     California with 55 electoral votes

·     Texas with 38 electoral votes

·     Florida with 29 electoral votes

·     New York with 29 electoral votes

·     Illinois with 20 electoral votes

·     Pennsylvania with 20 electoral votes

The states with the least electors are:

·     Alaska with 3 electoral votes

·     Delaware with 3 electoral votes

·     The District of Columbia with 3 electoral votes

·     North Dakota with 3 electoral votes.

·     South Dakota with 3 electoral votes.

·     Vermont with 3 electoral votes.

·     Wyoming with 3 electoral votes.

However, due to the U.S. Constitution-mandated reapportionment of Congressional districts after each completed census, on April 26, 2021, the U.S. Census Bureau announced that 13 states had changes in their congressional seat allocations:

·     California, New York, Illinois, Michigan, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and West Virginia each lost one seat.

·     Colorado, Florida, Montana, North Carolina, and Oregon each gained one seat.

·     Texas gained two seats.

That means in this coming election the states with the most electors are:

·     California with 54 electoral votes

·     Texas with 40 electoral votes.

·     Florida with 30 electoral votes.

·     New York with 28 electoral votes.

·     Illinois with 19 electoral votes, and,

·     Pennsylvania with 19 electoral votes 

The process of electing a president

The U.S. election process unfolds in several stages:

1.   General Election Day 2024: This year, we voters will cast our ballots on Nov. 5, 2024. On Election Day, voters in each state cast ballots for president and vice president. However, we are technically voting for a slate of electors chosen by the party who have pledged to support the party's candidate.

2.   Certificate of ascertainment: After the election, each state's chief executive-- the governor or the mayor in the case of Washington, D.C., submits the certificate to Congress and the National Archives, listing the names of the electors for each party, the total votes received by the parties, and the names of those appointed to serve as the state's electors.

3.   Meeting of electors: On the first Monday following the second Wednesday in December of the election year, the appointed electors of each state convene in their respective states to cast their votes. The outcome of these state votes is sent to the president of the Senate, aka the sitting vice president.

4.   Counting votes: On Jan. 6 of the year following the election, a joint session of Congress is convened to count and certify the electoral votes. If a presidential candidate receives 270 or more electoral votes, the sitting vice president, acting as the president of the Senate, declares the candidate president-elect, thereby concluding the electoral process. However, if no candidate wins at least 270 electoral votes, the matter is thrown to the House of Representatives, whose members have the sacred duty to choose from among the top three electoral college finishers, electing the president by simple majority. While the vice president will be elected by a simple majority in the Senate.

5.   Inauguration: The president-elect and vice president-elect are inaugurated on Jan. 20 at noon, marking the beginning of their four-year terms.

Historical context

The Founders, including Alexander Hamilton in Federalist No. 68, one of the 85 Essays written by Hamilton, James Madison, and John Jay and published under the pseudonym "Publius" in the then-prominent New York newspapers of the day, designed the Electoral College to balance various interests and prevent undue influence. However, historical instances, such as the elections of 2000 and 2016, have shown that the electoral vote can diverge from the popular vote, sparking debate about its efficacy.

What are the pros and cons of the Electoral College process?

1.   Federalism and state representation:

o    Pro: The Electoral College reinforces the federal structure of the United States by ensuring that states have a significant role in selecting the president. It balances the influence of both populous and less populous states, preventing larger states from having disproportionate power.

2.   Encourages broad geographic support:

o    Pro: Candidates must campaign across a variety of states and regions to win electoral votes, encouraging them to address a wide range of issues and concerns. This can lead to a more balanced and inclusive campaign strategy.

3.   Stability and certainty:

o    Pro: The Electoral College can provide a clear and decisive outcome, even in close elections. It reduces the likelihood of nationwide recounts and legal battles, which could occur in a direct popular vote system.

4.   Prevents urban dominance:

o    Pro: By giving smaller states a proportionally larger voice, the Electoral College prevents candidates from focusing solely on urban areas with high population densities, ensuring that rural and less populated areas are also considered.

5.   Historical foundation:

o    Pro: The Electoral College is a long-standing institution that has been part of the U.S. electoral process since the Constitution was adopted. It reflects the Founders' intent to create a system that balances popular sovereignty with federalism.

Cons of the Electoral College

1.   Disproportionate influence:

o    Con: The Electoral College gives disproportionate influence to smaller states because each state has a minimum of three electoral votes regardless of population. This can lead to situations where the votes of individuals in smaller states carry more weight than those in larger states.

2.   Possibility of minority rule:

o    Con: A candidate can win the presidency without winning the popular vote, as has happened in several elections (e.g., 2000, when Al Gore lost to Bush and 2016 when Mrs. Clinton lost to Trump). This can lead to questions about the legitimacy of the election and the democratic principle of "one person, one vote."

3.   Focus on swing states:

o    Con: The Electoral College system leads candidates to focus their campaigns on a few key "swing states" or "battleground states" that can go either way, often ignoring states that are solidly Democratic or Republican. This can result in uneven attention to the needs and concerns of the entire country.

4.   Discourages voter turnout:

o    Con: In states that are solidly aligned with one party, voters may feel that their votes do not matter, leading to lower voter turnout. This can undermine the democratic process and reduce civic engagement.

5.   Complexity and confusion:

o    Con: The Electoral College system is complex and can be confusing to voters. The indirect nature of the election process can lead to misunderstandings about how the president is elected and the role of electors.

6.   Potential for faithless electors:

o    Con: Although rare, there is the potential for "faithless electors" who do not vote according to the popular vote in their state. This can undermine the will of the voters and create uncertainty in the electoral process.

Key swing states in 2024

In the context of U.S. presidential elections, "swing states" (also known as battleground states) are those that do not have a consistent pattern of voting for a single party and can be won by either the Democratic or Republican candidate. These states are crucial because they can determine the outcome of the election due to their electoral votes. For the 2024 presidential election, the key swing states are likely to include:

1.   Pennsylvania:

o    Why: Pennsylvania has a significant number of electoral votes (19) and has been a battleground state in recent elections. It was won by Donald Trump in 2016 and Joe Biden in 2020. The state's diverse electorate, including urban, suburban, and rural areas, makes it highly competitive.

2.   Michigan:

o    Why: Michigan has 15 electoral votes and has swung between parties in recent elections. Trump won Michigan in 2016, while Biden won it in 2020. The state's mix of industrial cities and rural areas contributes to its swing state status.

3.   Wisconsin:

o    Why: With 10 electoral votes, Wisconsin is another key battleground. It was narrowly won by Trump in 2016 and by Biden in 2020. The state's electorate is divided between urban areas like Milwaukee and rural regions, making it highly competitive.

4.   Arizona:

o    Why: Arizona has 11 electoral votes and has become increasingly competitive. Traditionally a Republican stronghold, it was won by Biden in 2020, reflecting demographic changes and shifting political attitudes in the state.

5.   Georgia:

o    Why: Georgia, with 16 electoral votes, has emerged as a swing state. It was won by Biden in 2020, marking the first time a Democrat carried the state since 1992. The state's growing and diversifying population, particularly in the Atlanta metropolitan area, has contributed to its battleground status.

6.   North Carolina:

o    Why: North Carolina has 16 electoral votes and is known for its close elections. Trump won the state in both 2016 and 2020, but the margins were relatively narrow. The state's mix of urban, suburban, and rural voters makes it a key battleground.

7.   Florida:

o    Why: Florida, with 30 electoral votes, is one of the largest swing states. It has a history of close elections and was won by Trump in both 2016 and 2020. The state's diverse population, including a significant Latinx electorate, contributes to its swing state status.

8.   Nevada:

o    Why: Nevada has 6 electoral votes and has been competitive in recent elections. It was won by Biden in 2020, but the margins were relatively close. The state's growing and diverse population, particularly in the Las Vegas area, makes it a battleground.

9.   New Hampshire:

o    Why: With 4 electoral votes, New Hampshire is a smaller but still significant swing state. It was narrowly won by Biden in 2020. The state's independent-minded electorate and history of close elections contribute to its battleground status.

Why these states are designated as swing states

·     Historical voting patterns: These states have shown a tendency to swing between Democratic and Republican candidates in recent elections, making them unpredictable and highly competitive.

·     Demographic changes: Many of these states are experiencing demographic shifts, such as increasing urbanization, growing populations of people of color, and changing economic conditions, which can influence voting behavior.

·     Electoral votes: These states have a significant number of electoral votes, making them crucial for any candidate aiming to reach the 270 electoral votes needed to win the presidency.

·     Campaign focus: Candidates and their campaigns often focus heavily on these states, investing significant resources in advertising, ground operations, and candidate visits, which can further amplify their importance in the election.

The designation of swing states can change over time as political dynamics evolve, but these states are expected to be key battlegrounds in the 2024 presidential election.

Conclusion

Why every vote matters

Every vote contributes to the popular vote, which can influence electors. Voting is a fundamental democratic right and responsibility, and elected officials up and down a ballot make decisions that affect all our daily lives. Even in non-swing states, votes contribute to the national popular vote and influence down-ballot races, including those for the representatives and senators the new president will need to implement the policies that formed the rationale for our decision to vote him or her into office. Additionally, our engagement in the voting process sets an example for others by encouraging broader participation in our democracy though our examples.

So, I urge everyone to vote here in California and reach out to our friends and relatives living in the swing states of Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, Arizona, Georgia, North Carolina, Florida, Nevada, and New Hampshire. Encouraging our friends and relatives in swing states to vote is crucial to a fulsome turnout this election season. We need to inform our kin about the importance of their vote, assist them with registration by pointing them to their state's voting information, and support their participation in this key pivotal election.